The numbers have moved fast. As of 28 July, petrol has climbed to 157.81p, leaving it within about 2p of the 159.53p high reached in late May at the height of the Middle East crisis. Diesel has risen even quicker, to 175.71p — and while that's still some 15p below its own April record of 191.54p, the daily increases are outpacing petrol, and the priciest forecourts have already pushed a litre of diesel past the £2 mark. Since the start of July alone, petrol is up more than 6.5p and diesel around 9p.
As ever, the driver is the price of oil. A barrel briefly breached $100 last week — its first time above that level in two months — after renewed tension in the Middle East, before easing back to around $91. Because retailers buy wholesale fuel against that oil price, the rise reaches the forecourt within days. The RAC's outlook is blunt: it describes the picture for drivers as "pretty grim", and warns that if wholesale costs stay high, petrol could push toward 160p and diesel climb further still.
What the surge adds to a tank
In pounds and pence, July's rise has added roughly £3.50 to a petrol fill-up and £5 to a diesel one for a typical 55-litre family car — and petrol is currently climbing about 0.3p a day, diesel nearer 0.46p. That's a cost quietly building by the day, at the worst time of year, with the summer holidays in full swing and millions of families driving further than usual.
A record for this crisis — not all time: It's worth keeping the milestone in proportion. If petrol hits 159.5p it matches this year's Middle East-crisis high, and would be the most expensive since the crisis began — but it's still well short of the all-time UK record of 191.5p set back in the summer of 2022. Painful, yes; unprecedented, no.
Where your site actually helps: the widening gap
Here's the part the national headlines skip. When prices surge, the spread between the cheapest and dearest station in the same town gets wider, not narrower. Some forecourts pass on wholesale rises within a day or two; others hold their price for a week or more. That means the "average" of 157.81p hides a huge range — and the difference between filling at the right station and the wrong one is often 10–20p a litre, or well over £5 on a single tank. A quick check before you drive is worth more in a week like this than at any other time. You can see the cheapest and most expensive forecourts in the UK right now on our live tracker — the gap between the two is often startling.
The moves that save the most right now:
- Fill up sooner rather than later. With prices rising daily, a tank today is cheaper than the same tank at the end of the week — if you're running low, don't wait.
- Compare on the day, not from memory. The cheapest forecourt last week may have hiked since; live prices near you are the only reliable guide in a fast-moving market.
- Skip the motorway services. They're routinely 15–20p a litre dearer — a few minutes off the junction can save the price of a coffee and a sandwich, several times over.
- Don't fully fill at a dear station. Put in just enough to reach a cheaper one you've checked, rather than brimming the tank at the first pump you see.
Where next?
The honest answer is that it depends on oil, and oil depends on the Middle East. If tensions cool and the barrel price settles back, the recent rises should stall and then reverse — just as they did in June, when we reported diesel's record monthly fall. If they don't, petrol matching its May peak looks close to a certainty and diesel will keep grinding upward. Either way, this is now the third sharp swing in pump prices this year, and it underlines the same lesson each time: the pump price is volatile and largely out of drivers' hands — but which forecourt you choose isn't.
We covered the start of this reversal in last week's report as oil neared $90; it has since gone further and faster. You can follow the national averages on our UK Fuel Price Index, and if you want to understand the gaps you'll see between neighbouring stations, we explain why prices differ so much across the same town.