The turnaround has been fast. Petrol bottomed out at 150.59p on 6 July — briefly dipping under 150p at many forecourts — and has since climbed to 153.46p. Diesel, which hit a low of 164.52p on 9 July, has risen even quicker to 168.55p. Both are now at their highest for several weeks, although they remain well below this year's peaks of 159.53p for petrol (late May) and 191.54p for diesel (mid-April).
The cause is the same lever that has driven pump prices all year: the price of crude oil. A barrel cost a little over $70 at the start of the month; after a fresh exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, it is once again teetering on the brink of $90. Because retailers buy wholesale fuel against that oil price, the increase feeds through to the forecourt within days — and it climbs a good deal faster than it falls.
The RAC's Simon Williams summed up the whiplash: just three weeks ago the industry was celebrating the biggest-ever monthly drop in diesel, and now it has risen 4p in 10 days. It's a stark reminder, he said, of how volatile pricing is and how exposed UK drivers are to global events.
How much more is this costing you?
In cash terms, the rises are still modest per visit — but they add up. Filling a typical 55-litre tank with diesel now costs about £92.70, roughly £2.20 more than 10 days ago. A petrol fill-up is around £84.40, about £1.60 more than at the 6 July low. For a two-car household filling up a few times a month, that's the difference quietly creeping back onto the monthly budget just as holiday costs pile up.
The RAC expects more to come: Unless the oil price settles significantly lower, the motoring group warns that petrol could soon push past 155p and diesel climb back toward 174p. In other words, the pump increases seen over the past week and a half may not be finished — a lot now depends on whether tensions in the Middle East cool or escalate.
We flagged this three weeks ago
None of this should come as a total surprise. When we covered diesel's record fall at the start of the month, we were careful to note that the recovery was running on an interim deal rather than a signed peace, and that it wasn't a one-way street. Before that, we reported how the falls first stalled when the Strait of Hormuz situation flared up. That pattern — prices ease, talks wobble, prices bounce — has repeated all year, and it's exactly what has happened again.
How to soften the hit
When prices are rising, the value of shopping around goes up, not down. In a falling market the cheapest and dearest stations drift closer together; in a rising one they pull apart, because some forecourts pass on wholesale increases within days while others hold off. That's why the spread between the cheapest and most expensive station in the same town is often at its widest in a week like this one — and why a quick check before you fill up is worth more now than usual.
Before the getaway drive:
- Fill up before you set off, not on the motorway. Motorway services are routinely 15–20p a litre dearer than a supermarket a mile off the junction.
- Compare on the day. With prices moving daily, a forecourt that was cheapest last week may not be today — check live prices near you first.
- Don't panic-fill a half-empty tank at a dear station. Topping up just enough to reach a cheaper forecourt often beats a full tank at the first one you see.
The one saving grace is the Government's Fuel Finder scheme, which requires retailers to report price changes within 30 minutes — so when prices are moving this fast, the live data actually keeps up. You can track the national averages on our UK Fuel Price Index, and we explain why prices differ so much across the same town if you want to understand the gaps you'll see.