For most of this year fuel prices have moved with the Iran conflict, and the latest leg is no different. The average price of unleaded now stands at 159.43p per litre according to the RAC — the most expensive petrol has been since December 2022, and 26.6p more than on 28 February, the day the strikes on Iran began.
What makes this a genuine new high rather than just more of the same is the shape of the last six weeks. Petrol peaked at 158.3p in mid-April, then fell by just over a penny before the start of May. From there it began climbing again, day after day, until it overtook the April figure and set a fresh record. In other words, the brief relief drivers saw in late April has not only been wiped out — prices have pushed past where they were.
RAC head of policy Simon Williams described the latest rise as "bad news for drivers ahead of the bank holiday" and warned that, based on wholesale data, unleaded is likely to climb to at least 160p a litre in the coming weeks unless oil falls back sharply and stays there.
Why diesel is the odd one out
Diesel is the part of the picture that doesn't fit the headline. At 184.96p per litre it remains below its mid-April peak — about 6.58p lower than it was on 15 April — because wholesale diesel costs have eased back over the past few weeks. So while petrol is setting records, diesel is actually drifting down from its own high.
That said, "easing" is relative. Filling a typical 55-litre diesel tank still costs around £101.73 today — comfortably over the £100 mark, and roughly £23 more than at the start of the conflict. Earlier in the crisis the RAC flagged that diesel had become unusually expensive relative to petrol, which hits van-driving tradespeople and the haulage sector hardest. The gap has narrowed since, but diesel drivers are still paying a heavy premium.
Why prices are rising again
The driver behind the renewed climb is the same one that has shaped pump prices all year: the price of crude oil. After optimism earlier in the month that a ceasefire might hold, fresh US strikes on Iranian targets reversed that mood, and Brent crude jumped back above $100 a barrel. Oil has now traded above $100 since late April.
There's a built-in lag between wholesale and forecourt prices — it usually takes around two weeks for a change in the cost of crude to filter through to the pump. That's why drivers are still feeling the effect of oil's move now, and why the RAC's forecast points to further rises in the coming fortnight rather than immediate relief. Unless oil falls back meaningfully and stays there, the wholesale cost that retailers are paying for new stock keeps the pressure on.
The bigger bill: The RAC Foundation estimates that the rise in pump prices since the conflict began has cost UK drivers an extra £2.9 billion collectively, based on average daily price rises and last year's fuel consumption. For an individual driver filling a 55-litre petrol car, the 26.6p-a-litre increase since late February works out at roughly £14.60 more per tank than before the conflict started.
How this compares to the 2022 records
"Highest since 2022" is an important phrase to read carefully. Today's prices are the dearest in over two years, but they are not at the all-time records set during the summer of 2022. Back then, the average price of petrol peaked at 191.5p per litre on 3 July 2022, and diesel hit 199.09p on 25 June 2022, in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
So while the current level is painful, it is still some way below the worst the UK has seen. The concern is direction rather than absolute level: prices are rising, the forecast is for more of the same in the short term, and the one factor that could bring quick relief — a sustained fall in the oil price — is tied to an unpredictable geopolitical situation.
What this means for the fuel duty position
It's worth clearing up a common point of confusion. The government recently scrapped the fuel duty rise that was due in September, extending the 5p cut through the end of 2026. That decision is welcome, but it does not bring pump prices down — it simply stops them rising further from a tax change. The duty rate stays frozen at 52.95p per litre. Everything happening at the pump right now is being driven by the wholesale oil market, not by UK tax policy.
What drivers can actually do about it
The oil price, the Iran situation and the duty freeze are all outside any individual driver's control. The one thing that isn't is where you choose to fill up. And right now, with prices elevated and moving, the gap between the cheapest and most expensive forecourts in the same area is wide — wide enough to make a real difference to a single fill-up.
The practical takeaway: When national averages are climbing, drivers often assume there's nothing to be done — but that's exactly when shopping around pays off most. Local price differences are currently large enough to save up to £9 on a single tank, which is far more than any duty change would ever cost or save you. A quick check of prices near you before you turn into a forecourt is the single highest-value thing a driver can do this week.
Expect more movement: The RAC's wholesale analysis points to petrol reaching at least 160p a litre in the coming weeks unless oil drops sharply and holds there. Because of the two-week lag between wholesale and forecourt, today's oil price is effectively next fortnight's pump price. If you have a long journey planned, it may be worth filling up sooner rather than later — and using a price check to make sure you're not paying over the odds when you do.